Rates - Credit - Labour - Liquidity
Market Stability & Recession Cushion
Higher scores mean calmer financial conditions and fewer active recession warnings.
Rates and risk
Financial conditions
Short-term vs long-term interest rates
Normally, long-term bonds pay more than short-term bonds. When short-term rates become higher, it can mean the economy is under pressure and investors should be more alert.
Market volatility
The VIX is a measure of expected market turbulence. A rise signals greater investor demand for protection, not a prediction of the next market move.
Credit-risk premium
The high-yield spread shows the extra yield riskier companies must pay to borrow. A widening spread can signal tightening financial conditions.
Labour warning signals
Recession watch
Unemployment rate
A healthy economy usually keeps unemployment stable. A persistent rise may weaken household demand and company profits.
Sahm Rule
This rule tracks how far unemployment has risen from its recent low. It is shown on its own scale so a small but meaningful move is visible.
Liquidity
Money and funding backdrop
Money supply growth
Money-supply growth is a broad liquidity backdrop. It is context, not a stand-alone reason to enter or exit the market.
Liquidity flow
For the US this shows central-bank balance-sheet growth; for Singapore it shows SORA transaction volume. Both help describe the funding environment in their market.